Economic Analysis of Holiday Spending
In the current economic climate, consumer spending has received much attention as an important driver of the recovery. Unfortunately, many consumers continue to be reluctant to spend. This reluctance has been influenced by many things, including unemployment concerns. The holiday retail spending season has typically been considered not only the final word in the performance of the year gone by, but also something of a bellwether for the year to come. As such, holiday retail spending has received additional attention in the past few years.
The question is important for Ohio, as it is for all states. To assist retailers and other interested parties in anticipating this year’s holiday spending season, Focus on Ohio's Future asked the Economics Center to analyze national and state level data to develop a state level forecast. This report highlights the importance of retailing in Ohio and reminds policy makers that retail is important to the state economy.
Holiday Retail Spending Forecast
The analysis in this report presents key elements of the Ohio forecast of holiday retail spending. The key points to be taken from this analysis are:
- Holiday spending is a very important part of Ohio’s retail economy, and its economy in general.
- The same broad factors influence state and national consumer spending, dynamics differ.
- The Economics Center’s projection of a 2.66 percent increase in US holiday spending is quite similar to previously published estimates.
- For Ohio, the Economics Center projects a 3.31 percent increase in retail spending for November and December of this year, compared to last year.