Natives and Immigrants: Population Growth in Greater Cincinnati

Adapted from the work and research of Gary Wright, President, Wright Futures LTD

Migration is a barometer of the overall attractiveness of the region as a place where people choose to live and work. Over the last several years, the slow-down of the population in the Cincinnati region has been caused by of more people choosing to leave the region for other parts of the country than are choosing to move here.

International migration to the region traditionally offsets the loss of people in most of the U.S. but it is not playing a major role in driving growth here. This is a reason to be concerned about the openness of our labor market. The very low numbers of foreign-born population in the Cincinnati region is a sign that our local labor market has been dangerously isolated from the national market.

The U.S. as a whole has become increasingly reliant on immigrants for both population and labor force growth. Though recent immigration to the U.S. peaked in 1999 and 2000 at about 1.5 million persons, the share of the population made up of immigrants and their children will continue to grow. One estimate indicated 86% of all newly hired workers between 2000 and 2005 were immigrant. In 2000, the foreign born population made up 11.1% of the U.S. population, the largest share since 1930.

In sharp contrast to the national trend, the foreign born made up just 2.6% of the Cincinnati MSA's population, a virtual tie with Pittsburgh and Louisville for the second-lowest share of foreign born of all metropolitan areas with more than 1,000,000 people. Only Birmingham AL, had a smaller foreign-born population at 2.1%. While international migrants typically settle first in one of six “gateway” states” California, New York, Texas, Florida, Illinois, or New Jersey, secondary migration then takes many of them to the rest of the country. Cincinnati's data shows that the region is not well situated on those pathways.

It is difficult to tell how unauthorized immigrant population is influencing the local labor growth. Estimates of the number of unauthorized immigrants, which includes asylum seekers as well as illegal immigrants, are notoriously difficult to come by, and are not available for the Cincinnati MSA. Recently, however, the Pew Hispanic Center estimated the number of unauthorized immigrants by state for 2004. If the unauthorized population in the MSA mirrors that of the Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky combined, then an estimate would put the unauthorized population in our region at between 15 and 28 thousand, or from 0.7% to 1.4% of the total population.

The share of unauthorized immigrants of the U.S. labor force is estimated at about 4.9%. Applying the same population-to-labor force ratio to the Cincinnati MSA population suggests the unauthorized immigrants would make up less that 1.5% of the local labor force. Nevertheless, the low numbers here indicate that our local economy does not benefit from immigrant labor force as significantly as many other parts of the country.

The low immigration numbers locally are indicative of what our region has to offer, not only to the foreign-born population, but to other labor force segments as well. The openness of our labor market is a concern that should guide our local economic policy decisions.