Ohio Braces for Enrollment Decline

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Ohio Braces for Enrollment Decline

Ohio will be among 16 states to lose elementary and high school students over the next eight years, the National Center for Education Statistics predicts.

The federal agency each year releases education data and predictions, based on surveys, population patterns and other demographic changes. Policy makers, from legislators to school district treasurers, use such numbers to make decisions about districts and schools.

The center's report predicts that nationwide enrollment will grow 8 percent in schools, to 59.8 million students, by 2018. Private school enrollment will drop 2 percent on average, but public schools will gain 9 percent.

That won't happen across the board.

Ohio stands to lose 3.1 percent of its public school students, according to the report, while Kentucky will gain 3.6 percent.

Ultimately, shrinking enrollments could tax Ohio's school districts, residents' finances and the state's image with prospective employers, education and economic experts said.

Ohio, more than Kentucky or other states, is home to declining numbers of young married couples and families with school-age children, experts said.

"Ohio's population is tending to get a little bit older. We also tend to have a smaller immigrant population coming to Ohio. Immigrants tend to be younger" than other population groups, said Jeff Rexhausen, associate director of research at the University of Cincinnati's Economics Center for Education & Research.

But Cincinnati's metro area is not as bad as the rest of the state, he cautioned, because its diversified economy still attracts families to some still-growing suburban school districts, such as Mason, Lakota, Little Miami and others.

Cincinnati Public Schools, he said, has lost students but at a slower rate than the state.

Across Ohio, the number of high school graduates is projected to be nearly flat by 2018, while Kentucky's grads will grow by 13.2 percent, the center predicts. Nationally, high school graduates will increase by 11 percent.

Meanwhile, education spending nationwide is expected to grow 36 percent by the 2018-19 school year to $626 billion, the report states, using inflation-adjusted dollars. That averages $11,600 per student.

The report didn't break out states. State web sites show Ohio taxpayers spend $10,184 per student and Kentucky taxpayers about $8,839 per student.

Many Ohio districts get less money from state and local taxes, said Larry Johnson, dean of University of Cincinnati's college of education. "I don't see anybody putting a lot of money into our educational system," he said. "If anything, I see them continuing trying to squeeze more out of the system."

That will further depress high school graduation rates and college enrollment, he said, which will make Ohio less attractive to employers. "It's a vicious circle," he said. "The more you cut from your education system, the less you have an educated workforce."

Local districts officials agree, saying they've cut budgets and personnel in recent years.

Forest Hills schools, for instance, cut 50 staff members after last May's levy failure even as the district gained 25 students, said Gene Hutzelman, human resources director. "My first eight years here, we averaged 46 teacher hires a year," he said. "This past summer we hired eight."

Finneytown, a smaller district, has seen enrollment fall, along with state revenue, but some costs have gone up, said treasurer David Oliverio. Some service costs the district pays to help students with disabilities have doubled since last year, he said.

"We're seeing more students with greater needs," he said. "There are more students with physical, social and emotional problems and school districts have to take care of them ... because no one else has."

Nationwide, schools are expected to hire more teachers and reduce class sizes, according to the report, which did not provide state numbers. The number of teachers is projected to grow from 3.6 million in 2006 to 4.2 million in 2018, a 16 percent jump.

Johnson said new teacher hires in Ohio will replace hundreds of retiring Baby Boomer teachers. The state is about to reduce some retirement benefits, he said, so more teachers will retire rather than wait.

Private schools nationwide also will hire up to 7 percent more new teachers, despite predicted enrollment dips, the study says.

But those hires will be made strategically, with an eye on which grades are slated to gain enrollment, said Myra McGovern, spokeswoman for the National Association of Independent Schools.

Private schools will use this and other reports, she said, to decide how much student recruiting to do, what local areas to market in, and how to structure financial aid to counter enrollment declines.

Ohio's independent schools are budgeting conservatively, said Karin O'Neil, executive director of the Ohio independent schools group.

A few schools will decide to close or merge, McGovern said, but that is rare among her group's membership.

"If a community's population is declining, that's going to have much more of an effect than even the economy," she said.

The national projections report uses annual surveys of public and private schools, Census population studies, and birth and mortality estimates. Changes in state education laws and funding were not included in the projections.